Building accurate project estimates
Most freelancers underestimate projects by 20-50%. According to research on planning fallacy, humans consistently predict tasks will take less time than they actually do, regardless of experience.
The estimation framework
- Break it down: Split the project into phases and tasks. Estimate each separately. Small chunks are easier to gauge than monolithic projects.
- Add buffer: Multiply your estimate by 1.2-1.5x. This accounts for unplanned additions, revisions, client delays, and unforeseen complexity.
- Track actuals: After the project, compare your estimate to reality. Over time, you will learn your personal multiplier.
Common sources of underestimation
- Client communication: Emails, calls, and feedback rounds often equal the actual production time
- Revisions: Budget for at least 2 revision rounds, more for subjective work like design
- Project management: Scheduling, status updates, and coordination take real time
- Technical issues: Bugs, compatibility problems, and edge cases always appear
A study by McKinsey found that large projects run 45% over budget and 7% over time on average. Even small projects suffer from optimism bias.
Project pricing strategies
There are multiple approaches to quoting projects. The right choice depends on project clarity, client relationship, and your risk tolerance.
Fixed price
One number for the entire scope. Client knows exactly what they will pay. You bear the risk of underestimation but keep the upside if you finish early.
Best for: Well-defined projects you have done before. Standard deliverables. Clients who need budget certainty.
Time and materials (hourly)
Bill for actual hours worked, often with an estimate or cap. Lower risk for you, but clients may feel uncertain about final cost.
Best for: Unclear scope. Discovery and exploration projects. Ongoing work. Clients who trust you.
Hybrid pricing
Fixed price for defined phases, hourly for unknowns. Example: "$3,000 for design, hourly for development (estimated 40-60 hours)."
Best for: Complex projects with some clear deliverables and some uncertain elements.
Value-based pricing
Price based on the value you create for the client, not the time you spend. A redesign that increases conversions by 2x is worth more than the hours suggest.
Best for: Projects with measurable business outcomes. When client ROI is clear and large.
What to include in project budgets
A project quote has more components than most freelancers include. Missing any of these erodes your margin.
Direct labor
Hours × rate. But which rate? Your target hourly rate should already cover overhead and profit. If not, you need to add those separately.
Project-specific expenses
- Stock assets: Images, fonts, icons, templates
- Software: Tools bought specifically for this project
- Subcontractors: Specialists you bring in
- Travel: On-site visits, client meetings
- Printing/production: Physical deliverables
Bill these at cost or with a 10-15% markup to cover your time managing them.
Overhead allocation
If your rate does not include overhead, allocate a percentage of project revenue to cover fixed costs: software subscriptions, insurance, equipment depreciation, etc.
Profit margin
After covering costs and paying yourself, the business needs profit for growth, savings, and risk buffer. Standard service business margins are 15-25%.
Contingency
For uncertain projects, add 10-20% contingency. You can offer to refund unused contingency, which clients appreciate.
